Results
- Showing results for:
- Reset all filters
Search results
-
Journal articleDavids D, Grant N, Mittal S, et al., 2025,
Impact of methane leakage rate and carbon capture rate on blue hydrogen sustainability using combined warming index
, Applied Energy, Vol: 394, ISSN: 0306-2619Blue hydrogen may become important to achieve decarbonisation targets. Yet, the uncertainty and aggregated impact of methane leakage rate and carbon dioxide capture rate on the value of blue hydrogen from a whole systems perspective has not been investigated. Our study focuses on the impact of the dual influence of these variables in an energy system model of the United Kingdom (UK). We incorporate practical ranges for methane leakage rate and carbon capture rate and analyse their impact by formulating a novel parameter, termed the Combined Warming Index (CWI). The CWI can be used to assess decarbonisation scenario outputs from energy system models giving insights into their effects on the dynamics of energy system and decarbonisation parameters. Our results suggest that sustainable deployment of blue hydrogen becomes threatened at a carbon capture rate of 85 % and across the range of methane leakage rates of 0.125 %, 0.5 %, 1 %, 1.5 % and 2.5 %. At a carbon capture rate of 90 %, and methane leakage rates at 1 %, 1.5 % and 2.5 %, blue hydrogen is not significantly deployed to 2050. Methane leakage rate and carbon capture rate are key parameters for the success of blue hydrogen as a low-carbon hydrogen option, and although carbon capture rate is the more critical parameter, methane leakage rate is also important but becomes a secondary concern in natural gas supply chains with low fugitive emissions. The outcome of our research can contribute to framing relevant policy for the application of CCS technology as society seeks to attain low-carbon economy aims.
-
Journal articleOluleye G, McLaughlin S, Steen E, et al., 2025,
Blending interventions to achieve green hydrogen cost competitiveness for industrial decarbonisation
, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, Vol: 144, Pages: 1343-1357, ISSN: 0360-3199Industrial decarbonisation can be supported by green hydrogen as a fuel and feedstock, but its cost remains too high to compete with natural gas. In this study, the achievement of cost competitiveness for green hydrogen is examined through a combination of internal interventions, including the reduction of electrolysis costs via waste heat sales to district heating networks and the use of curtailed wind, alongside external interventions such as market-based policies and sustainability-linked bonds. A novel temporal market penetration assessment model has been developed and applied to evaluate the impact of these interventions, both individually and in combination, on achieving cost parity. The methodology has been implemented in a UK case study to assess these dynamics within the energy landscape and policy framework. The findings indicate that cost reductions of 17.5 % can be achieved through hydrogen from curtailed wind, while waste heat utilisation contributes a 24.7 % reduction. Existing policy measures are found to have the potential to lower costs by 39 %. A total cost reduction of 78 % is observed when interventions are blended, with green hydrogen from curtailed wind projected to reach cost parity with natural gas by the mid-2030s under high natural gas price scenarios. The feasibility of blended interventions in facilitating the industrial adoption of green hydrogen is thereby demonstrated.
-
Journal articleYang Y, Toumi R, 2025,
Large dynamic contributions to tropical cyclone precipitation with increasing sea surface temperature
, Environmental Research Letters, Vol: 20, Pages: 074013-074013<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>Understanding the relative contribution of dynamic and thermodynamic factors to tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall is an important challenge. This study examines the response of TC precipitation due to increasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) using convection-permitting model simulations. The sensitivity of key TC rainfall metrics, including the azimuthally averaged maximum precipitation rate were examined. The amount of scaling of precipitation with SST depends on the chosen TC precipitation metric and mostly surpasses the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) relationship. The azimuthally averaged maximum precipitation rate (Pm) exceeds twice the rate expected under the CC relationship (2CC). By decomposing the scaling rates into thermodynamic and dynamic contributions using a physical diagnostic method, we demonstrate that dynamic changes primarily (about 73%) drive the scaling of Pm. The available moisture plays a much smaller role than expected and scales surprisingly at less than CC. The dynamic contribution is always large for all precipitation metrics. The combination of increased moisture and updrafts enhances moisture convergence, thereby intensifying precipitation and ultimately leading to a super-CC relationship. The ‘exceeding 2CC’ behavior is attributed to the dominance of dynamic effects, particularly enhanced upward motion near the TC inner core. Accurate projections of future changes in TC precipitation therefore depend critically on accurate projections of changes in TC dynamics.</jats:p>
-
Journal articleDavids D, Grant N, Mittal S, et al., 2025,
Assessing a mixed hydrogen economy for resilient net-zero using energy system modelling
, International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, Vol: 138, Pages: 1092-1103, ISSN: 0360-3199Low-carbon hydrogen will play a key role in the portfolio of alternative fuels towards climate targets. However, there are gaps in determining how deploying different hydrogen colours and production pathways contributes to achieving climate goals in a jurisdiction, including the economic impact on the energy system, the wider system, and the impact on the final energy mix. This work is the first to perform a detailed analysis of the interrelation between blue hydrogen, green hydrogen (onshore and offshore produced) and other hydrogen colours using an energy system model. Results show that for scenarios where blue hydrogen and green hydrogen are not deployed, green hydrogen is not deployed, blue hydrogen is not deployed, and blue hydrogen, onshore and offshore green hydrogen are deployed, have energy system costs 0.94 %, 0.32 %, 0.06 % and −0.1 % respectively from a reference with the base hydrogen types, blue and only onshore green available. Our optimum 'Mixed Hydrogen Economy' scenario has lowest decarbonisation costs by 2050 when net-zero emissions is achieved and ensures diversity of energy supply to boost energy security. Results emphasise the hydrogen economy is most pronounced when all available and sustainable hydrogen production options are deployed. The findings contribute towards evaluating the impact of hydrogen deployment in low-emissions scenarios.
-
Journal articleFuertes E, Konstantinoudis G, van der Plaat D, et al., 2025,
Vulnerability to pollen-related asthma hospital admissions in the UK Biobank: a case-crossover study
, Allergy, ISSN: 0105-4538 -
Journal articleTheokritoff E, Lejeune Q, Costa HP, et al., 2025,
Climate overshoot implications for local adaptation planning
, Climate Policy, ISSN: 1469-3062As global warming increases, the topic of overshoot, understood as the temporary exceedance of the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement, is gaining prominence both in scientific and political spheres. However, overshoot and its implications for adaptation in the short – and long-term remain unexplored. In this Perspective, we reflect on the current use of global climate scenarios and local impact projections in science-based adaptation planning. The risks arising from overshoot scenarios in relation to the transgression of limits to adaptation and impact irreversibility are highlighted. We find that the prospects of potential long-term impact reversibility may have limited relevance in most adaptation decision-making contexts, indicating that it might be peak warming, rather than a long-term outcome, that determines adaptation needs and costs. While overshoot may not be relevant for short-term planning, it should be considered for long-term plans and policies, for example for infrastructure-based measures and for irreversible impacts such as sea-level rise. Key insights from adaptation practitioners in four diverse urban vulnerability contexts (Bodø, Lisbon, Nassau, Islamabad) are presented on how these risks are perceived and integrated (or not) into local planning and policy-making. We find that current adaptation planning must be extensively evaluated against a wider set of future global climate outcomes to incorporate risks of transgression of local limits to adaptation and overshoot. To this end, data gaps on adaptation limits and impact reversibility need to be filled and capacity building needs on climate scenarios, overshoot and related concepts for local adaptation practitioners should be addressed.
-
Journal articleChen J, Toumi R, Zhang L, et al., 2025,
Radial rainfall pattern changes of intense over‐ocean tropical cyclones under global warming: insights from an MRI HighRes CMIP6 simulation
, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 52, ISSN: 0094-8276Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall is an important hazard. Radial rainfall patterns of intense over‐ocean TCs under global warming are investigated using the MRI HighRes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulation with the SSP5‐8.5 high‐emission scenario. These patterns are characterized by four parameters: rainfall at the cyclone center (To), maximum rainfall (Tm), radius of maximum rainfall (Rm), and e‐folding radius (Re). We find Tm strongly correlates (r = 0.8) with a moisture convergence proxy—boundary‐layer maximum wind times column moisture divided by the radius of maximum wind—across differentintensities and under climate change. Under warming, mean Tm and To increase by 8.65%/K and 8.86%/K, while Rm and Re shrink by 1.03%/K and 1.79%/K, respectively. Notably, under warming, Tm exhibits greater sensitivity to TC intensity, and its increases are mainly attributed to column moisture increase.
-
Journal articleFu H, Cenedese C, Lefauve A, et al., 2025,
A laboratory analogy for mixing by shallow cumulus convection
, Journal of Fluid Mechanics, Vol: 1011, ISSN: 0022-1120Shallow cumuli are cloud towers that extend a few kilometres above the atmospheric boundary layer without significant precipitation. We present a novel laboratory experiment, boiling stratified flow, as an analogy to study turbulent mixing processes in the boundary layer by shallow cumulus convection. In the experimental beaker, a syrup layer (representing the atmospheric boundary layer) is placed below a freshwater layer (representing the free troposphere) and heated from below. The temperature is analogous to the water vapour mixing ratio in the atmosphere, while the freshwater concentration is analogous to the potential temperature. When the syrup layer starts boiling, bubbles and their accompanying vortex rings stir the two-layer interface and bring colder fresh water into the syrup layer. Two distinct regimes are identified: transient and steady boiling. If the syrup layer is initially sufficiently thin and diluted, then the vortex rings entrain more cold water than needed to quench superheating in the syrup layer, ending the boiling. If the syrup layer is initially deep and concentrated, then the boiling is steady since the entrainment is weak, causing the entrained colder water to continuously prevent superheating. A theory is derived to predict the entrainment rate and the transition between the two regimes, validated by experimental data. Finally, analogies and differences with the atmospheric processes are discussed.
-
Journal articleRai U, Chen J, Oluleye G, et al., 2025,
Stochastic optimisation model to optimise the contractual generation capacity of a battery-integrated distributed energy resource in a balancing services contract
, Energy, Vol: 322, ISSN: 0360-5442Popular heuristic approaches applied by demand response aggregators often use conservative tactics and may fall short of the contractual generation capacity of a distributed energy resource (DER) allocation in a balancing services (BS) contract. Hence, the possibility of optimising revenue remains generally unexplored. This research presents a novel framework for aggregators by employing a two-stage stochastic mixed integer nonlinear programming model to tackle site electricity demand unpredictability and the uncertainty of short-term operating reserve (STOR) calls to find the optimal generation capacity of a diesel generator (DG) to contract in STOR service. In the first stage, K-means clustering for innovative segmentation and rigorously categorising half-hourly site electricity demand data into optimal demand bins is employed. In the second stage, the model integrates a behind-the-meter battery energy storage system (BESS) to enhance performance and evaluate scenarios with and without BESS. Additionally, the study evaluates the effects of varying BESS capacities to enhance the contractual capacity of the DG, resulting in significantly improved revenue. A rigorous sensitivity analysis of penalty cost, utilization payment, and storage capacity ensures the robustness of the model across varied conditions. Results show the site revenue increases between 7.91 % and 20.27 % compared to the deterministic MIQCP approach previously employed.
-
Journal articleChen A, Wang J, Toumi R, et al., 2025,
Impact of tropical cyclone precipitation on fluvial discharge in the Lancang‒Mekong river basin
, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 52, ISSN: 0094-8276Tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) and associated floods have caused widespread damage globally. Despite growing evidence of significant changes in the activity of tropical cyclones (TCs) in recent decades, the influence of TCs on regional flooding remains poorly understood. Here, we distinguish the role of TCs in fluvial discharge by explicitly simulating discharge with and without observed TCP in the Lancang‒Mekong River Basin, a vulnerable TC hotspot. Our results show that TCs typically contributed approximately 30% of annual maximum discharge during 1967–2015. However, for rare and high-magnitude floods (long return periods), TCs are the dominant driver of extreme discharge events. Moreover, spatial changes in TC-induced discharge are closely related to changes in TCP and TC tracks, showing increasing trends upstream but decreasing trends downstream. This study reveals significant spatiotemporal differences in TC-induced discharges and provides a methodology for quantifying the role of TCs in fluvial discharge.
-
ReportZachariah M, Rivera JA, Sörensson AA, et al., 2025,
Consecutive extreme heat and flooding events in Argentina highlight the risk of managing increasingly frequent and intense hazards in a warming climate
-
OtherLinden P, Atoufi A, Lefauve A, et al., 2025,
Hydraulic control, turbulence and mixing in stratified buoyancy-driven exchange flows
<jats:p>Buoyancy-driven exchange flows in geophysical contexts, such as flows through straits, often create a partially-mixed intermediate layer through mixing between the two stratified counterflowing turbulent layers. We present a three-layer hydraulic analysis of such flows, highlighting the dynamical importance of the intermediate layer. Our model is based on the viscous, shallow water, Boussinesq equations and includes the effects of mixing as a non-hydrostatic pressure forcing. We apply this shallow-water formulation to direct numerical simulations of stratified inclined duct (SID) exchange flows where turbulence is controlled by a modest slope of the duct. We show that the nonlinear characteristics of the three-layer model correspond to linear long waves perturbing the three-layer mean flow, and predict, in agreement with recent experimental observations in SID, hydraulically-controlled regions in the middle of the duct, linked to the onset of instability and turbulence. We also provide the first evidence of long-wave resonance, as well as resonance between long and short waves, and their connection to transitions from intermittent to fully developed turbulence. These results challenge current parameterisations for turbulent transport in stratified exchange flows, which typically overlook long waves and internal hydraulics induced by streamwise variations of the flow.</jats:p>
-
OtherLefauve A, Bassett C, Plotnick D, et al., 2025,
The structure of stratified mixing by shear instability in baroclinically forced shear flows
<jats:p>We present observational data from the mouth of the Connecticut River, a shallow salt-wedge estuary characterised by intense interfacial mixing. The motivation is to better understand, and ultimately predict, density-stratified turbulent mixing driven by shear instabilities at high Reynolds numbers (Re > 10^5). Such processes span an immense turbulent energy cascade across eight orders of magnitude, from coherent instabilities at kilometre scales to the smallest mixing eddies at micrometre scales. Using multi-beam echo-sounding imagery, we reveal the spatial structure and temporal evolution of turbulent mixing with unprecedented detail. During the flood tide, large-scale topography and hydraulics cause the pycnocline to slope, which triggers, through baroclinic forcing, primary shear instabilities in the form of long trains of Kelvin-Helmholtz billows. Our data demonstrate that at Re ~ 5x10^5, mixing occurs primarily by turbulence in the braids connecting the cores of the billows rather than within the cores themselves. This secondary 'braid turbulence' is continuously forced by the secondary baroclinic generation of shear within the sloping braids. This finding challenges the prevailing paradigm built upon direct numerical simulations (DNS) at lower Reynolds numbers (Re ~ 10^3-10^4), where mixing is thought to occur primarily by overturning in the billow cores. This distinction is a significant shift in understanding the high-Re turbulent cascade in mixing hotspots, with potential implications for mixing parameterisations in the coastal ocean.</jats:p>
-
OtherTheokritoff E, Sparks N, Otto F, et al., 2025,
Building a global and rapid event impact attribution framework
<jats:p>While event attribution has made considerable progress in the last two decades, event impact attribution, which calculates the attributable share of impacts from extreme weather events, remains challenging. Impacts result from the interaction between the intensity of hazards, the exposure of affected areas and the vulnerability of individuals, infrastructures and the environment. Across different types of extreme weather events, impacts and world regions, a wide range of datasets and approaches need to be considered to tackle this complex and interdisciplinary field of research.Here, we aim to develop simple methods that can be deployed rapidly and globally to estimate attributable impacts in the aftermath of extreme weather events. We will present initial work on attributing direct economic impacts from tropical cyclones and on an updated global physical asset database used in this context.This initiative produces near-real-time results that can be communicated in a timely manner to a broad audience, raising awareness about the impacts of extreme weather and the role of climate change. It ultimately seeks to provide valuable information on losses and damages and levels of adaptation, which can be instrumental for policymaking, climate justice and preparing societies for future extremes.</jats:p>
-
OtherTheokritoff E, Sparks N, Otto F, et al., 2025,
Tracking losses and damages from extreme weather events
<jats:p>While the field of event impact attribution is still relatively nascent, diverse methodologies and datasets are starting to be used to put numbers on the share of additional impacts that occur due to climate change during extreme weather events. The growth of this body of evidence has implications for climate litigation as these studies can be starting points for legal cases centred around specific climate change impacts, such as heat-related mortality or economic costs of extreme weather.As we work towards operationalising a tracker that will provide timely estimates of losses and damages from extreme weather events globally, we aim to present results from our initial rapid studies conducted over the past year. We will reflect on the potential implications of the increasing availability of loss and damage information and the broader need for communication and awareness raising around these issues. We also plan to highlight prevailing methodological challenges and areas of research to be advanced in the near future that are relevant for legal efforts.</jats:p>
-
OtherLefauve A, Zhu L, Jiang X, et al., 2025,
New insights into experimental stratified flows obtained through a physics-informed neural network
<jats:p>We develop a physics-informed neural network (PINN) to significantly augment state-of-the-art experimental data of stratified flows. A fully connected deep neural network is trained using experimental data in a salt-stratified inclined duct (SID) experiment. SID sustains a buoyancy-driven exchange flow for long time periods, much like an infinite gravity current. The data consist of time-resolved, three-component velocity fields and density fields measured simultaneously in three dimensions at Reynolds number= O(10^3) and at Prandtl or Schmidt number = 700 [1]. The PINN enforces incompressibility, the governing equations for momentum and buoyancy, and the boundary conditions at the duct walls. These physics-constrained, augmented data are output at an increased spatio-temporal resolution and demonstrate five key results: (i) the elimination of measurement noise; (ii) the correction of distortion caused by the scanning measurement technique; (iii) the identification of weak but dynamically important three-dimensional vortices of Holmboe waves; (iv) the revision of turbulent energy budgets and mixing efficiency; and (v) the prediction of the latent pressure field and its role in the observed asymmetric Holmboe wave dynamics. These results mark a significant step forward in furthering the reach of fluid mechanics experiments, especially in the context of stratified turbulence, where accurately computing three-dimensional gradients and resolving small scales remain enduring challenges.References[1] L. Zhu, X. Jiang, A. Lefauve, R. R. Kerswell, and P. F. Linden. New insights into experimentalstratified flows obtained through physics-informed neural networks. J. Fluid Mech., 981:R1, 2024.</jats:p>
-
ReportClarke B, Zachariah M, Pinto I, et al., 2025,
Increasing extreme rainfall and rapid urbanisation major drivers behind Gaborone’s deadly floods
-
ReportKew S, Pinto I, Philip S, et al., 2025,
Women and girls continue to bear disproportionate impacts of heatwaves in South Sudan that have become a constant threat
-
Journal articleLefauve A, Cheung YHM, Jiang X, et al., 2025,
Routes to stratified turbulence and temporal intermittency revealed by a cluster-based network model of experimental data
, Epl, Vol: 149, ISSN: 0295-5075Modelling fluid turbulence using a “skeleton” of coherent structures has traditionally progressed by focusing on a few canonical laboratory experiments such as pipe flow and Taylor-Couette flow. We here consider the stratified inclined duct, a sustained shear flow whose density stratification allows for the exploration of a wealth of new coherent and intermittent states at significantly higher Reynolds numbers than in unstratified flows. We automatically identify the underlying turbulent skeleton of this experiment with a data-driven method combining dimensionality reduction and unsupervised clustering of shadowgraph visualisations. We demonstrate the existence of multiple types of turbulence across parameter space and intermittent cycling between them, revealing distinct transition pathways. With a cluster-based network model of intermittency we uncover patterns in the transition probabilities and residence times under increasing levels of turbulent dissipation. Our method and results pave the way for new reduced-order models of multi-physics turbulence.
-
Journal articleWang T, Iriawan H, Peng J, et al., 2025,
Confined Water for Catalysis: Thermodynamic Properties and Reaction Kinetics.
, Chem Rev, Vol: 125, Pages: 1420-1467Water is a salient component in catalytic systems and acts as a reactant, product and/or spectator species in the reaction. Confined water in distinct local environments can display significantly different behaviors from that of bulk water. Therefore, the wide-ranging chemistry of confined water can provide tremendous opportunities to tune the reaction kinetics. In this review, we focus on drawing the connection between confined water properties and reaction kinetics for heterogeneous (electro)catalysis. First, the properties of confined water are presented, where the enthalpy, entropy, and dielectric properties of water can be regulated by tuning the geometry and hydrophobicity of the cavities. Second, experimental and computational studies that investigate the interactions between water and inorganic materials, such as carbon nanotubes (1D confinement), charged metal or metal oxide surfaces (2D), zeolites and metal-organic frameworks (3D) and ions/solvent molecules (0D), are reviewed to demonstrate the opportunity to create confined water structures with unique H-bonding network properties. Third, the role of H-bonding structure and dynamics in governing the activation free energy, reorganization energy and pre-exponential factor for (electro)catalysis are discussed. We highlight emerging opportunities to enhance proton-coupled electron transfer by optimizing interfacial H-bond networks to regulate reaction kinetics for the decarbonization of chemicals and fuels.
-
Journal articleJiang J, Chen Y, Zhang R, et al., 2025,
New insights on the impact of light, photoperiod and temperature on the reproduction of green algae <i>Ulva prolifera</i> via transcriptomics and physiological analyses
, MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN, Vol: 211, ISSN: 0025-326X -
ReportBarnes C, Keeping T, Madakumbura G, et al., 2025,
Climate change increased the likelihood of wildfire disaster in highly exposed Los Angeles area
-
Journal articleMonerie P-A, Feng X, Hodges K, et al., 2025,
High prediction skill of decadal tropical cyclone variability in the North Atlantic and East Pacific in the met office decadal prediction system DePreSys4
, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol: 8, ISSN: 2397-3722The UK Met Office decadal prediction system DePreSys4 shows skill in predicting the number of tropical cyclones (TCs) and TC track density over the eastern Pacific and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the decadal timescale (up to ACC = 0.93 and ACC = 0.83, respectively, as measured by the anomaly correlation coefficient—ACC). The high skill in predicting the number of TCs is related to the simulation of the externally forced response, with internal climate variability also allowing the improvement in prediction skill. The Skill is due to the model’s ability to predict the temporal evolution of surface temperature and vertical wind shear over the eastern Pacific and tropical Atlantic Ocean. We apply a signal-to-noise calibration framework and show that DePreSys4 predicts an increase in the number of TCs over the eastern Pacific and the tropical Atlantic Ocean in the next decade (2023–2030), potentially leading to high economic losses.
-
OtherTheokritoff E, Yesil B, Menke I, et al., 2025,
How can overshoot risks be included in long-term adaptation planning?
<jats:p>As climate change intensifies, it is essential to take a wide range of climate scenarios and their consequential impacts into account for adaptation planning. Overshoot scenarios, during which global warming will temporarily exceed the 1.5&#176;C Paris Agreement target before it is brought down again in the following decades, are increasingly likely under current emissions trajectories. They would result in complex risks such as limits to adaptation and irreversible impacts and stress the need to prepare long-term adaptation plans under deep uncertainty.Here, we introduce the latest version of the Overshooting Proofing Methodology, a self-assessment tool designed to guide adaptation planners and policy-makers to integrate overshoot risks into planning processes, and present novel insights from its application with key stakeholders at city and regional levels. We also reflect on how adaptation pathways can allow to adequately plan a sequence of adaptation measures over time based on information collected through this tool. Its initial implementation in selected cities/regions reflects its applicability in varied climatic settings together with a range of climate related challenges. This work provides insights on key data gaps, capacity building needs and avenues for future adaptation planning, policy-making and research.</jats:p>
-
ReportJennings N, Paterson P, Whitmarsh L, et al., 2025,
How have the UK public been affected by extreme heat and what do they think about the risks that it poses in the future?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment report concluded that the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and extreme heat has increased globally as a result of climate change. Such extremes of temperature negatively affect people’s physical and mental health.These slides summarise findings from a nationally representative sample (on the basis of age, gender and ethnicity) of 897 people who were asked to share their experience of heatwaves and very hot weather in the UK. The survey was conducted via the platform Prolific.com between 2-4 October 2024.
-
Journal articleRoulston M, Kaivanto K, Toumi R, 2025,
Tracking evolving views of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season with an expert prediction market
, Weather, ISSN: 0043-1656Before the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season began, the consensus was that it would be one of the most active seasons in history. However, a prolonged quiet period during late August and early September possibly led forecasters to question these predictions, before later activity fulfilled the season’s high expectations. The CRUCIAL initiative ran a ‘prediction market’ during 2024 which allowed experts to bet on the number of hurricanes. Prices in this market provide an insight into how views changed during the season. Prediction markets can efficiently aggregate the judgements of multiple experts and provide more up-to-date information than periodically issued forecasts.
-
Journal articleYe H, Favero S, Tyrrell H, et al., 2025,
Progress and Challenges in Electrochemical Glycerol Oxidation: The Importance of Benchmark Methods and Protocols
, Chemcatchem, ISSN: 1867-3880Electrochemical oxidation of glycerol presents a strategy to utilize the glycerol byproduct from biodiesel production to co-generate valuable liquid products at the anode and green hydrogen at the cathode, with lower energy requirement than conventional water electrolysis, offering both environmental and economic benefits. This review summarizes recent advancements in electrocatalyst development for glycerol electro-oxidation and highlights the challenges posed by its complex reaction mechanisms, including wide product distribution, multiple binding configurations of reaction species, unstable intermediates, and the coexistence of both Faradaic and non-Faradaic pathways, all of which complicate the identification and quantification of glycerol derivatives using chromatographic and spectroscopic techniques. The review emphasizes the need to establish standardized protocols for electrochemical measurements that are scalable and transferable from rotating disk electrodes (RDE) to membrane electrode assemblies (MEA), as well as for product detection and quantification using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). To enable intra-laboratory comparisons, researchers should provide detailed specifications of experimental setups, conditions, and methodologies for evaluating electrochemical activity, catalyst durability, and calibration standards for product quantification via HPLC. Consistency in reporting experimental data, particularly regarding product selectivity, is crucial but often overlooked. Lastly, this paper discusses the potential of applying in situ techniques to understand the reaction mechanisms at the molecular level and to distinguish between Faradaic and non-Faradaic reaction pathways, while addressing the limitations and difficulties of applying these techniques.
-
Journal articlePfleiderer P, Frölicher TL, Kropf CM, et al., 2025,
Reversal of the impact chain for actionable climate information
, Nature Geoscience, Vol: 18, Pages: 10-19, ISSN: 1752-0894Escalating impacts of climate change underscore the risks posed by crossing potentially irreversible Earth and socioecological system thresholds and adaptation limits. However, limitations in the provision of actionable climate information may hinder an anticipatory response. Here we suggest a reversal of the traditional impact chain methodology as an end-user focused approach linking specific climate risk thresholds, including at the local level, to emissions pathways. We outline the socioeconomic and value judgement dimensions that can inform the identification of such risk thresholds. The applicability of the approach is highlighted by three examples that estimate the required CO2 emissions constraints to avoid critical levels of health-related heat risks in Berlin, fire weather in Portugal and glacier mass loss in High Mountain Asia. We argue that linking risk threshold exceedance directly to global emissions benchmarks can aid the understanding of the benefits of stringent emissions reductions for societies and local decision-makers.
-
Journal articleLai T, Toumi R, 2025,
Sensitivity of the energy conversion efficiency of tropical cyclones during intensification to sea surface temperature and static stability
, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol: 151, ISSN: 0035-9009It is projected that the sea surface temperature (SST) increases under climate change and enhances tropical cyclone (TC) intensification directly. An opposing expected feature of climate change is the strengthening atmospheric static stability, which may suppress intensification. The intensity and diabatic heating are closely related through the secondary circulation, but it has been unclear whether both will change at the same rate. Here we show that they respond differently to stability changes. The efficiency of converting diabatic heating to kinetic energy (KE) of TCs to SST and static stability during the intensification stage is examined. In a set of idealised simulations, the efficiency does not have a significant relation with the SST. However the efficiency is found to decrease with increasing static stability at a rate of about -5 % ⋅K‾¹. It is shown that the KE increment declines, while the diabatic heating in the eyewall remains unchanged with larger static stability. The decrease in KE gain at the eyewall is associated with an enhanced outward advection of absolute angular momentum. The combined effect of enhanced water‐vapour supply and the slightly reduced updraft at the eyewall keeps the diabatic heating steady with varying static stability. This study demonstrates the complex effects of enhanced static stability, which is expected to accompany surface warming, on tropical cyclones.
-
ReportOtto F, Giguere J, Clarke B, et al., 2024,
When risks become reality: extreme weather in 2024
This data is extracted from the Web of Science and reproduced under a licence from Thomson Reuters. You may not copy or re-distribute this data in whole or in part without the written consent of the Science business of Thomson Reuters.
View publications by:
Topic
Climate Science
Earth and Life Sciences
Energy and Low-Carbon Futures
Resources and Pollution
Economics and Finance
Health
View all publications and browse by year
Publication type
Briefing papers and Briefing notes
Grantham Institute Outlooks
Evidence & submission papers
Infographics